Today's Wisdom - Order, Oil, and Outlaws

Welcome back to A Little Wiser! A reminder this Friday’s edition features Tim Marshall, the bestselling author of Prisoners of Geography. Some of you might have missed our last edition because it went to the wrong inbox. If this was the case please move it to your primary inbox and reply to this edition with a simple OK (it helps Gmail know you want to receive our newsletter). Today’s wisdom explores:

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Admiral William H. McRaven, a Navy SEAL with 37 years of service, famously remarked that if you want to change the world, you should start by making your bed. The logic is rooted in behavioral psychology's "domino effect." Making your bed is what researchers call a keystone habit: a small action that provides structural integrity for the rest of your day. The first hour after waking is a critical window where the brain transitions from the slow theta waves of sleep into the alert alpha and beta frequencies of the day. During this state, your mind is exceptionally impressionable. The inputs you choose (like exercise versus social media when waking up) and the environment you inhabit prime your neural pathways for the next sixteen hours. By imposing order on your immediate surroundings, you practice a micro-win that signals to your prefrontal cortex that you are the architect of your day.

Our brains evolved to scan for threats and anomalies, meaning every piece of clutter in your peripheral vision competes for neural resources and increases cognitive load. A 2011 Princeton University study found that a cluttered environment significantly restricts the brain's ability to process information and focus. When your room is in disarray, your brain spends energy ignoring the mess. By clearing physical space, you allow for higher-level executive function and lower baseline cortisol, the body's primary stress hormone. The mental bandwidth saved by a clean environment translates directly into improved concentration and reduced anxiety.

Making your bed is also about what psychologists call the "Completion Effect." Humans are biologically wired to seek the dopamine release that comes from finishing a task. Making your bed provides immediate, tangible achievement before you face a single external pressure. It bridges the gap between the passivity of sleep and the agency of work. Even if you have a miserable day where nothing goes right, you come home to a bed you made and a silent reminder that you are capable of discipline and order. The habit compounds: one completed task in the morning makes the second task easier, creating momentum that carries through the day.

In 1870, the oil industry was ruthless as competition drove prices so low that refiners often operated at a loss. John D. Rockefeller, a meticulous bookkeeper from Cleveland, looked at this volatility and decided competition itself was the problem. His solution was Standard Oil, a company designed to bring order to the market by systematically devouring it. He began with horizontal integration, buying up every rival refinery in Cleveland until he controlled the bottleneck of the entire industry. In what became known as the "Cleveland Massacre" of 1872, he absorbed 22 of his 26 competitors in less than four months. His pitch was simple: join Standard Oil and prosper, or stay independent and be crushed.

Rockefeller's true advantage came from vertical integration. He realized that owning refineries meant nothing if someone else controlled the barrels, pipelines, and trains. So he bought forests to make barrel staves, built plants to manufacture the barrels themselves, and eventually constructed pipelines that bypassed railroads entirely. Standard Oil negotiated secret rebates with railroad companies, ensuring they paid a fraction of what competitors did to ship kerosene. They even secured an arrangement where railroads paid Rockefeller a cut of the shipping fees his competitors paid. Rockefeller commanded this leverage because Standard Oil’s massive, predictable shipping volume provided the railroads with the steady flow of traffic they needed to stay profitable. The scheme was brilliant and vicious and by the 1880s, Standard Oil controlled 90% of America's refined oil. Rockefeller had built a closed loop that made competition mathematically impossible.

The Supreme Court ordered the breakup of Standard Oil in 1911, splintering the trust into 34 independent companies. The irony is that those fragments, which became companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron, actually grew more valuable as separate entities. Rockefeller owned shares in all of them, and the breakup made him the richest man in American history, with a fortune equivalent to roughly 1.5% of the entire U.S. GDP. He spent his final decades donating over $550 million, funding the eradication of hookworm in the American South and establishing the University of Chicago. He died in 1937 at 97, having watched his monopoly shattered and his wealth doubled. Today, his fingerprints appear every time a tech giant swallows a startup or a retailer builds its own delivery fleet. Rockefeller proved that the ultimate prize goes to whoever can successfully eliminate the competition.

For 71 consecutive years, Mexico's Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) controlled both the government and the drug trade. Violence happened, but behind closed doors, with the government keeping traffickers in line through corruption and selective enforcement. When Mexico democratized in the 2000s, that control evaporated. The 2016 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán was celebrated as a victory, but it triggered exactly what experts feared: fragmentation. Arresting the king shattered the drug cartel into warring factions fighting over the crown. In 2024, U.S. authorities arrested Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada, El Chapo's former partner, in what appeared to be a betrayal by El Chapo's sons. The Sinaloa Cartel immediately split into two armies: "La Mayiza," loyal to Zambada's son, and "Los Chapitos," led by El Chapo's heirs. By 2025, Sinaloa was in full out civil war. The era of the singular drug lord has been replaced by a dozen competing organizations, each as violent as the other.

While Sinaloa tears itself apart, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) has become Mexico's most powerful criminal army. Founded in 2010, it now operates in 28 of Mexico's 32 states. Cartels have abandoned marijuana fields, which satellites can spot and soldiers can burn, for fentanyl super-labs hidden in warehouses. By importing chemical ingredients from Asia, they produce synthetic drugs with staggering margins: one kilogram of fentanyl generates $1.5 million in street revenue compared to just $6,000 for heroin. This wealth has allowed cartels to diversify like corporations. They tax avocado farmers in Michoacán, steal fuel from government pipelines, control water rights, and extort protection money from small businesses.

The militarization is what terrifies authorities. The CJNG operates with military precision, deploying armored vehicles and weaponized drones. Mexican intelligence reports suggest cartel members receive training in advanced drone warfare, potentially from foreign mercenaries. The cartels have also infiltrated politics directly. In the lead-up to Mexico's 2024 elections, over 30 political candidates were assassinated. Many local mayors win office already on cartel payrolls. President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office in 2024, inherited this crisis and has taken a different approach than her predecessor. Rather than declaring war on cartels, a strategy that only increased violence, her administration focuses on attacking their financial networks, strengthening local police forces, and reducing the poverty that makes cartel employment attractive. Early results are mixed. Arrests of key lieutenants have destabilized leadership, but violence remains high. The fundamental problem persists: in much of rural Mexico, the cartel provides jobs, settles disputes, and builds roads while the federal government remains distant. Until the state can offer what the cartels already provide, every arrest simply creates space for the next generation of traffickers to rise.

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Until next time... A Little Wiser Team